The fall in Indian rupee which has been steepest in the decade has been very exposing and warning signal to the economic policy being followed over last two decades. Though it has not been a isolated phenomenon but 9.1% fall in second quarter has left many person pondering on why this is happening at a fast pace and what is going to happen next. The other asian currencies like bhat , peso, won, singapore doller , malysian ringgit have also lost 5.8, 5.6, 2.7 , 1.9 and 2.5 percentage respectively during the same time but rupees slide has been the steepest. Many of the well known columnist and big economist are putting it aside as a short term phenomenon, but as a commenteter and primary student of economics , to me, this needs deeper thoughts.If our economy is so brittle that a statement of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the central bank may moderate the pace of quantitative easing later this year and end the stimulus by mid-2014 , can lead to such a fall,then it is leaving us very vulnerable.
The economists are attributing it to the withdrawal of U.S. stimulus Programme in wake of strengthening of their economy and China's cash crunch, there is bigger question on how long our economy will be so much dependent on US economy. In pure economics theory, America's have been printing billions of dollars after the economic crisis which means more liquidity and hence should have lead to inflation there but reality is that no inflation resulted. May be a weak Europe economy and not so good emerging markets have still kept the faith intact in US treasury but Where these money has gone? obviously, it has been routed to emerging markets like India. But was is it in form of FDI? No, mostly FII which is a easier route to fly back. Even in those conditions , Indian economy is not thought to be attractive as investment destination because of the basic weakness in the government policy which has not been able to tap this easy opportunity. The Indian currency suffered from more outflows than other emerging Asian currencies in the recent global markets rout due to worries about a record-high current account deficit as well. Our energy import bill is a known issue, but why do we import so much of gold and why govt is doing so little on this front. Neither, their is effort to do something extraordinary on the energy side nor there is effort to discourage people from putting their money in dead asset like gold. Last Friday, finally govt woke up to do something on gas pricing to give some impetus to increase domestic production. But this cannot be a very long term solution as we cannot meet our consumption from only domestic production. We need alternate solution . By giving easy money to the people in form of energy subsidy, we are not only straining the fiscal deficit and hence lesser money for infrastructure development, it is leading us to do more borrowing and the result is inflation. The key is how do we control this populist political economics which is indirectly influencing the health of the country. We need more money to go into infrastructure project and less on importing the oil and subsidizing to get votes.
why we are not able to attract the FDI in the core sectors? Why the govt doesn't have policy to improve the manufacturing base? The reason for current account deficit is not only import but less export also. Even after so many years of economic liberalisation having taken roots, we have not been able to do much on manufacturing. Only sector which has done something is service sector, especially the software export and BPOs. They could flourish because they didn't need govt support and our country had some inherant strength to do well in these sector. However, the area such as manufacturing which essentially needs skill development, infrastructure, proper govt statutory and taxation environment has not got any support . The result is we hardly do any export of manufactured goods other than clothes and gems &jewElaries and heavily import most of the engineering and electronic equipment from abroad. This brings much pressure on the currency. we need to make our fundamentals strong like Korea and do drastic changes in enabling manufacturing led growth otherwise just on mere speculation of unrealistic return from Us treasury, the money market will behave erratically bringing more strains to the exchequer and we continue to struggle in the vicious cycle of high fiscal deficit, low growth, high inflation, high current account deficit and ultimately a poor country.
sir I read Your All posts,
ReplyDeletereally awesome,
and good analysis & elaborating about Indian Economy Ruppee/FdI
Best Regards
Kamal sharma